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What you need to know for Saturday’s MLB games
By Mike Leaves
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Having been sidelined all season while recovering from elbow surgery, Dustin May (56%) looked good in his 2022 debut last week, pitching five scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins with nine strikeouts and only three runners on base allowed. Adding to the impressive results, May averaged 97.7 mph on his fastball, which is close to where he was sitting before surgery (98 mph). It will be tough to get a win on Saturday with Sandy Alcantara taking the mound for Miami, but the 24-year-old is still in a favorable spot against the Marlins, who are sporting an ugly 76 wRC+ since the All-Star break. While May’s roster percentage has skyrocketed over the past week, he’s still available in a plethora of leagues.
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Start after start, Jeffrey Springs (45%) keeps getting the job done. In his last 15 at-bats, the Tampa Bay Rays left-hander has a brilliant 2.54 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9. Only once during that period did Springs allow more than three runs in a start. Against a Boston Red Sox offense that has been well below average over the past 30 days with a 92 wRC+, Springs appears to be a quality broadcast option on Saturday.
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Sticking with the Rays/Red Sox game, it’s a good time to stock up on Tampa Bay right-handed bats with Rich Hill playing rubber for the Red Sox. The veteran southpaw is allowing a .352 wOBA to right-handed swingers this season, putting Harold Ramirez (20%), Manuel Margot (11%), José Siri (1%) and Isaac Paredes (13%), who he has homered in two of his last three games, all on the broadcast radar for those in leagues with daily moves.
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Drew Smyly (9%) has had a hot streak, posting a 2.38 ERA in six second-half starts. His recent effectiveness has been bolstered by a slight increase in the speed of his sinker. While his all-season average with the pitch sits at 92.5 mph, he’s increased it to 93.4 mph in his last three starts. Look for Smyly’s success to continue against a Milwaukee Brewers offense that has been largely nonexistent against lefties, illustrated by his .270 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate.
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Early in the season, Jorge Mateo (44%) was solely a source of stolen bases for fantasy managers. That is no longer necessarily the case. After hitting .205/.258/.353 on 74 wRC+ in the first half, he has hit .308/.345/.558 on 158 wRC+ since the break. Perhaps most notably, he lowered his K-rate from 30.7% in the first half to just 20% in the second. Mateo, who has both outfield and shortstop eligibility, now looks like a much more interesting fantasy commodity, both as a daily broadcast option and a potential asset down the stretch.
Ranking of starting pitchers for Saturday
The best hitters under 50% of the list for Saturday
The best and worst hitters of the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty that uses advanced methods like those used in MLB headquarters, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, stadiums, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher’s throwing frame and much more.
The worst hitters over 50% on the list for Saturday
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Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 64%) at David Peterson
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Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 60%) at Alcantara
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Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 58%) vs. Charlie Morton
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Franmil Reyes (CHC, DH — 59%) at Brandon Woodruff
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Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 88%) in Luis Castillo
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Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 91%) vs. Shohei Ohtani
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Andrés Giménez (CLE, 2B — 71%) at Castillo
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Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 87%) at Woodruff
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Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 72%) at Jordan Montgomery
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Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 91%) vs. Ohtani