The real estate market went from steam to stagnation (free download)

The housing market went from buzzing to stalling a few months ago, and now that some time has passed, we’re getting more statistics to help show the effect of higher mortgage rates. Today let’s look at sales volume to understand what’s going on. I also have a free download for anyone who wants to make images like this.

Photo of a steaming kettle with the caption, "The housing market went from steaming to stagnant."

09/08/22 SAFE CU “Stats & Mimosas” (sold out)
09/15/22 Midtown Market Update (TBD details)
07/10/22 Market Update with SAR (Register Here – On Zoom)


If you like the charts below, click here to download an Excel template to make images like this for your area. Simply enter your MLS information and the template will do the math for you. I included a longer table and a shorter one. Maybe focus on local cities or zip codes or surrounding counties. Make sure you have enough data to make it meaningful. I hope this helps.


Sellers, today’s market is very different…

A meme with a car turning quickly to the right.  Left turn says "2021 and the right turn says "deal." Then on top of the car it says "2022." The idea is that it is a very different market today where sellers have to negotiate.


Since May we have seen a big change in stats, so I wanted to compare the last few months of this year to the same period last year. Basically every county and price range has seen a drop in sales volume. Look, a lot of people only focus on prices, but the trend comes first with the number of pending contracts and sales, so let’s focus on volume right now. Anyway, most areas are low volume by 20-30% or so. Keep in mind that the numbers can be unstable when there are not many sales.

What catches your eye next?


A table to show the sales volume in Sacramento County between May and August 2021 and the same period this year (listed by cities and CDPs).

A table of Sacramento County volume changes from May to June 2022 (neighborhoods and some zip codes)


A table to show Placer County's volume this year compared to last year (May through August)


A table to show El Dorado County volume last year compared to this year (May through August)


A table to show Yolo County's sales volume between May and August (last year compared to this year)


As time goes on, it will become more apparent how various price ranges and locations are doing in today’s market. But for now, I’m hoping these stats at least provide a small window into demand, and perhaps hint at a few different price points. Or perhaps they prompt us to investigate some areas further.


Since June, we’ve seen fewer new listings on the market in the Sacramento area, and that seems to be giving buyers and sellers a bit of room to adjust to the change. It’s like some stats are starting to get a little more horizontal lately instead of showing the really steep drop that we saw from May to June. In other words, a sharp drop is not going to show up every month in the statistics. For example, the number of outstanding contracts has been somewhat flat over the last month, rather than seeing the same massive decline from May to June. Of course, we are still WAY down from last year, so it is better to call this market stagnant, but the May-June rate of change did not persist into August. Also, price reductions have been somewhat flat in recent weeks. I mean, half of all assets are down in price right now, so we really do have an overvalued market. All I’m saying is that it looks like we’re starting to see price cuts not grow as big. Ultimately, we need time to see the trend and we are living in the midst of change at the moment. This makes me a bit hesitant to write about leveling up, but I wanted to share what I’m seeing in the numbers right now. Note that not all stats are leveling off (more on that later). I’m just saying some of them seem to have flattened out a bit. And lastly, if rates spike in the next few weeks, all bets are off because that could change the dynamic…

Let’s keep watching.

MARKET STATISTICS: I will have a lot of market statistics this week on my social channels so watch TwitterInstagram, LinkedIn and Facebook.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What is it that most attracts your attention? Do you see any difference in the market based on price or location? I’d love to hear your opinion.

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